Changes in Land Use and Ecosystem Service Values of Dunhuang Oasis from 1990 to 2030

Maintaining the integrity and stability of oasis ecosystems is an important topic in field ecological research. Assessment ecosystem services their changes can provide support for sustainable development oases. This study took Dunhuang hyper-arid area as research object used 1990, 2010, 2020 Landsat series satellite images to complete land use interpretation by random forest classification. Then we estimated value (ESV) using benefit transfer method, predicted trend service under three scenarios Analytic Hierarchy Process method patch generation simulation model (AHP-PLUS model). The results showed that vegetation areas Oasis first decreased then increased during 1990–2020. decrease was largely due expansion built-up farmland, increase mainly contributed implementation protection policies. path ESV 1990–2020 well consistent with areas, a maximum 9068.15×106 yuan (in 1990) minimum 6271.46×106 2010). Spatial autocorrelation analysis urbanization reduced ESV, policies enhanced ESV. year 2030 conservation scenario could reach 7631.07×106 yuan, which 381.1×106 higher economic scenario. optimal option achieve Oasis. We suggested government should continuously enhance forests waterbodies, reasonably restrict production domestic water consumption, efficiently proportion consumption. In addition, this improved evaluation based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) grasslands different coverage, improving environment arid areas.